Scenario technique

Activities

• Activity 9: Assurance of the fulfilment of the requirements

Necessary tools

• Computer tools for cluster analysis

Description

The scenario technique is used to analyze current situations and estimate future situations. Future models can be created and the effects of these on a field of investigation can be analyzed. This also makes it possible to form strategies and focal points for the target planning of product development.

Procedure

1. Define the design field (product, product family, business area, etc.) that should be considered by the scenarios to be developed
2. Identify relevant characteristics that have a significant influence on the system under consideration and can/should come from different areas
3. Using an influence matrix, determine the ÔÇ£key factorsÔÇØ, i.e. the decisive critical characteristics from the multitude of influencing factors
4. Formulate conceivable development opportunities ÔÇô so-called future projections ÔÇô for key factors
5. Determine the consistency of the combinations of individual manifestations of the key factors using the consistency matrix
6. Using cluster analysis or stepwise consistency, bundle matching future projections into a few sufficiently consistent packages
7. Create scenarios from different ÔÇ£bundlesÔÇØ of consistent characteristics
8. Interpret the scenarios and examine their implications
9. Derive strategic measures and options for action

Sources

• Lindemann 2009, p. 312, 313